India's manufacturing sector growth started the year 2025 on a strong footing and touched a six-month high in January, fuelled by the steepest upturn in exports in nearly 14 years, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from December's one-year low of 56.4 to 57.7 in January supported by the fastest upturn in new export orders since February 2011.
Prospects of a bumper kharif harvest are expected to lower food inflation in the coming months, making the country's inflation outlook benign, the Union Ministry of Finance (FinMin) said in its monthly economic report for October released on Monday.
'If weak indicators persist, there is a risk that India could slip into a prolonged slowdown similar to the one experienced between 2014 and 2019,' warns Debashis Basu.
The ministry of finance is likely to assume crude oil price to remain within $85 per barrel while estimating subsidies for the Interim Budget 2024-25 (FY25), to be presented on February 1. Brent crude prices moved up on Thursday, ending at $78.9 per barrel. Crude oil and cooking gas prices, which move in tandem, impact fertiliser and cooking gas subsidies, constituting 53 per cent of the government's total subsidies.
Amid rising geopolitical risks, a vast majority of Indian CEOs have indicated in a survey that they are reducing or planning to reduce operating costs, even as they are more upbeat than their global peers on their country's economic prospects. However, most of the companies do not plan to cut their headcount or salaries, found the annual Global CEO Survey released by consultancy giant PwC here on the first day of the World Economic Forum meeting on Monday. The survey also found that about four in ten CEOs (40 per cent of global and 41 per cent of India respondents) do not expect their companies to be economically viable in 10 years if they continue on their current path.
The United Nations on Wednesday pared down India's growth forecast by 20 basis points to 5.8 per cent for 2023 calendar year, citing higher interest rates and risks of recession in the developed world weighing on investment and exports. "Economic growth in India is projected to moderate in 2023, with higher interest rates weighing on investment and slower global growth weakening exports," it said in its latest World Economic Situation and Prospects report. The report has projected global trade to contract 0.4 per cent and the world economy to grow at 1.9 per cent in 2023.
Latest GDP growth numbers a one-off development and not the beginning of a trend, says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran.
An improvement in political relations, anchored in a restoration of peace and tranquillity at the border, could open up opportunities for expanded economic and commercial relations between them, suggests former foreign secretary Ambassador Shyam Saran.
We have entered a new era in human history, asserts Aakar Patel.
The "weaponisation" of economic activity - through tariffs and sanctions - is now a reality, with countries leveraging these tools strategically, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said at the Raisina Dialogue recently.
The United Nations has warned that the world is on the brink of another recession, projecting that global economic growth will slow down further in 2012 and even emerging powerhouses like India and China, which led the recovery last time, will get bogged down.
Developing countries need to focus on raising the growth potential of their economies, while strengthening buffers to deal with risks from the euro area and fiscal policy in the US, the Bank said in its latest report Global Economic Prospects, which was released on Tuesday.
'Unfortunately, India and Pakistan could learn a 'lesson' from this conflict that will make them more likely to use these weapons against each other in the future.' 'Rounds of missile and drone attacks could be more routine features of their hostility, just like artillery fire has become a familiar fact of life along the Line of Control.'
Fitch Ratings on Thursday raised its forecast for India's economic growth to 7 per cent for the next fiscal year starting April 1 on the back of strong domestic demand and sustained level of business and consumer confidence. With a stronger-than-expected 8.4 per cent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) during the third quarter (October-December) of the current fiscal year, Fitch saw the Indian economy expanding 7.8 per cent in 2023-24 financial year (April 2023 to March 2024), marginally higher than the government's estimate of 7.6 per cent.
India and the US are expected to have smooth trade negotiations after US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a productive meeting during Modi's visit to the White House last month, Stephen A Schwarzman, chairman, chief executive officer, and co-founder of one of the world's largest alternative investment firms, Blackstone Group, said in Mumbai on Wednesday.
IT services firm Wipro's revenue is likely to increase by about 4.5 per cent in FY26, mainly driven by favourable sectoral trends and recovery in discretionary customer spending, according to global rating agency Fitch.
Fitch Ratings on Thursday retained India's growth forecast for the current fiscal at 6.3 per cent citing economic resilience despite tighter monetary policy and exports weakness, but upped year-end inflation projection on El Nino threat. The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of current fiscal on strong services sector activity and robust demand. "The Indian economy continues to show resilience despite tighter monetary policy and weakness in exports, with growth outpacing other countries in the region," Fitch said, while projecting 6.3 per cent growth for current fiscal (April-March), and 6.5 per cent for next fiscal.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continues unabated, as they withdrew Rs 64,156 crore ($7.44 billion) this month so far on depreciation of the rupee, rise in the US bond yields and expectation of a tepid earning season. This came after an investment of Rs 15,446 crore in the entire December, data with the depositories showed.
China and India evoked the highest levels of confidence among major economies at 45 per cent and 40 per cent, respectively. The US was at 36 per cent, Canada at 27 per cent, the UK at 26 per cent, Germany at 20 per cent, France 18 per cent, and Japan having the least optimistic CEOs with only 11 per cent very confident of growing revenues in 2020.
Improved monsoon, solid fiscal performance, and capex push by the public and private sectors augurs well for India's macroeconomic stability and growth, the finance ministry's monthly economic review for June 2023 said. But the report said that while India's domestic fundamentals remain strong, negative cross-border spillovers and adverse global developments could act as a deterrent in achieving the high growth path this financial year. "An improved matching of aggregate supply and aggregate demand in the Indian economy underpins the progress made in the control of domestic inflation and the consequent strengthening of macroeconomic stability," the review said.
The recent financial crisis and prospects of a prolonged downturn in global economic activity have once again invigorated the critiques of global financial integration and free trade.
Challenging the decision of the Biden Administration to investigate the activities of Indian billionaire Gautam Adani and his companies, an influential Republican lawmaker on Tuesday said such selective actions risk damaging critical alliance partners.
This comes at a time when the global recovery remains fragile and is expected to slow later this year as the impact of the fiscal stimulus measures wanes.
The problems of financial markets have started affecting the real economy worldwide. Consensus estimates suggest that 2009 will be worse than 2008.
'Pakistan is no longer a front-burner issue for America.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected retail inflation at 4.2 percent for the next financial year beginning April while retaining the forecast for 2024-25 at 4.8 percent. The central bank attributed the expected easing of inflation to good kharif production, winter-easing in vegetable prices and favorable rabi crop prospects. However, the RBI also noted that continued uncertainty in global financial markets coupled with volatility in energy prices and adverse weather events presents upside risks to the inflation trajectory.
While growth in India and China is likely to remain robust, the rest of the world risks falling back into recession if developed countries embark prematurely on fiscal austerity measures, says a United Nations report, released in New York on Thursday.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday revised upwards the GDP growth projection for the current fiscal to 7.2 per cent from 7 per cent on rising private consumption and revival of demand in rural areas. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) placed India's real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 8.2 per cent in 2023-24. "During 2024-25 so far, domestic economic activity has maintained resilience," he said, adding that manufacturing activity continues to gain ground on the back of strengthening domestic demand.
'A long-term investor with a 4 to 5 year horizon could invest in this theme via SIPs.'
The multilateral lending agency said India's growth would ease to 8.2 per cent this financial year (2011-12) against 8.5 per cent a year ago, as high inflation had cut into disposable income and hence demand.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
Elaborating on the reasons behind the expected slowdown in the country's economic growth, the multilateral lending agency said it 'stems from a moderation in domestic demand, as elevated inflationary pressures have cut into disposable incomes and household spending'.
In its report 'Global Economic Prospects 2010' the World Bank has said: 'Global GDP, which declined by 2.2 per cent in 2009, is expected to grow 2.7 per cent this year and 3.2 per cent in 2011'.
India should convert the Trump threat to an India opportunity, re-embracing a more liberal trade regime as a way of reviving manufacturing output and exports.
There is little doubt that the global economic crisis has worsened Indias growth prospects, but the slowdown began long before the US financial meltdown began.
Institutional investments in Indian real estate have seen a strong start to 2025, with inflows reaching $ 1.3 billion in the first quarter - a 31 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase. This growth was primarily driven by domestic investments, which accounted for 60 per cent of the total inflows during the quarter. With $ 0.8 billion inflows, domestic investments saw a 75 per cent annual rise and were largely focused on industrial & warehousing and office segments.
Trump's sweeping tariffs and penalties on China-built ships have turned global shipping into the front line of economic war, observes Shyam G Menon.
The Galwan clash occurred six months after the Doklam disengagement and two high-profile meetings. India should not be caught by surprise once again, asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
In its latest report, the Bank has lowered its forecasts for developing countries, now eying growth at 4.8 per cent this year, down from its January estimate of 5.3 per cent.
